by Sviatoslav Karavansky
Yanukovych shows his claws
At the end of July 2011, President Yanukovych together with his Politburo decided the fate of Y. Tymoshenko: she should be arrested shortly.
One may only guess why such a decision happened. Here is one of our guesses.
European leaders are good diplomats that manage to hide their thoughts and intentions. One of their hidden thoughts is as follows:
“Yanukovych is longing to the Europe. It is good. It proves that we have strength and prestige. Let him long. Don’t push him away. But, in fact, he would join the EU not earlier than after 10 or more years.”
Such a view is shared by a narrow circle of the EU, having in mind that their view will never touch Yanukovych’s ears. And here EU’s leaders let the chance slip. Moscow managed to have its “sympathizer” in the narrow circle of European chiefs. And this sympathizer did tell Moscow all the European secrets.
So, Moscow says to Yanukovych: ”You are longing to Europe, but they consider you a jerk, a moron, a fool”, giving him some undeniable evidence of their words.
Receiving this information from Moscow, Yanukovych started the course of repressions against the opposition’s leader, but kept silent about the Moscow information.
Oligarchs met the wishes of opposition
The decision of the Politburo was not to be made public. It was a state secret in order that the opposition could not be ready to the future arrest. We weren’t on the raft of Politburo and can only suppose logically what took place there. There were voices for and against. Oligarchs might be against, because they understood, that such a step diminished the chances of Ukraine’s Mafia to set fashions in the European Parliament. But President was for, and this settles the matter.
Oligarchs were dissatisfied, because such a move will wound their interests. As for assurance about the security of such a step, Oligarchs suspected that it is a maneuver of the “master” and his “lads” who, in fact, don’t want integrate with the far from criminal behavior Europe, where one cannot use criminal Latin and “send anybody on three letter.”1)
Oligarchs faced the choice: to work for their benefit or for their harm. It is clear that the latter prevails. The president’s plan should be undermined. But how can оне do this? There wasn’t анother possibility, as to warn the opposition about the Politburo’s decision.
And this was done. The opposition was warned a week before the “action.”
It was a double play. Members of the Party of Regions tried to rescue their opponents
Exactly as in the television game “Big Brother.”
One more oligarchs’ step toward the opposition
The citadel of Oligarchs is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Some important warnings came from there to Yanukovych and he did obey.
Should this ministry be a neutral observer, while its European hopes are in danger?
Apparently, it won’t.
It should know, if anybody does, the sentiments among the ruling circles of Europe. The repression against the leader of opposition may hinder the Euro-integration of Ukraine. The President enacted a frankly anti-European action. There was no doubt.
And what did we see?
On July 27 (notice the date: it was several days after the Politburo’s decision) the MFA expressed the hopes for the constructive stand by the Ukrainian opposition in lobbying the country’s European political partners for the ratification of the future Association Agreement with the European Union. Oleh Voloshyn, director of the MFA’s Information Office, told the Brussels-based correspondent of Ukrinform: “…the active involvement of the opposition forces in lobbying for the successful ratification of the Free-Trade-Zone Agreement by the Euro-Parliament would be a real demonstration of the sincerity of the wishes declared by the opposition to support Ukraine on the path to the EU.” Voloshyn noted that this is natural, considering the close ties Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and other Ukrainian parties have with the largest political force in the Euro-Parliament, the European Peoples Party.
Speaking about the future summit Ukraine-EU, the diplomat added: “…in the course of these hearings, the voice of our opposition, which could firmly and clearly state that despite any disagreements with the authorities, it calls on its partners to promote Ukraine’s European integration, would be a real gift from the opposition to our citizens.”
In other words, Oligarchs call the beheaded opposition to give a gift to them, who are the most interested in the free-trade-zone, covering this desire by calling the opposition gift the gift to the citizens.
This call requires a separate consideration.
How should the opposition react?
There is no doubt that the Oligarchs’ appeal will call quite opposite reactions from the opposition. A part of them would support this appeal, and a part – won’t. As a result, one of two reactions would get the upper hand.
And here is the time to express our thought.
The political reality is a kind of a market. A bargain is going, where each one tries to gain to itself as much benefits as possible. The Oligarchs’ appeal is a chance for the opposition to have some political benefits for Ukraine. Therefore, it would be unreasonable to choose one out of two extreme points: the unconditional consent or unconditional dissent. It is necessary to use a considered and reasonable approach.
The opposition understands that the Euro-integration is important for Ukraine. But Ukraine needs also the real European democracy, where human rights and rule of law are observed. Joining the EU by Ukraine, where these values are violated, won’t be beneficial for Ukraine or for Europe.
The most reasonable solution is to support the Euro-integration of Ukraine under some real conditions. The real condition, which can prove the presence or absence of democracy in a country are the parliamentary or presidential elections. So, the starting point in our consideration should be the elections. The nearest parliamentary elections in Ukraine should be held in 2012, exactly one year after the summit Ukraine-EU. A year for history is a blink of eyes; therefore there is no need to hurry with an epochal for Ukraine and for the Europe decision.
So, the Ukrainian opposition should make a statement that the Euro-integration of Ukraine is to be decided after the parliamentary elections.
If these elections would meet the European standards, the opposition will support the Euro-integration of EU. If the opposite takes place, the opposition won’t support Ukraine’s joining the EU.
It will be a considered and reasonable solution of the Gordian knot of the Ukraine’s Euro-integration, bound by history.
The fair and honest elections require a corresponding law. But one should keep in mind that the leader, accustomed to falsifications, can manage to get round the most fair and most democratic law.
So, only the practical course of electoral actions may be the criteria of democracy in any elections and also the criteria of democracy of any regime.
1) The Russian “Latin” super-vulgar idiom, meaning “to send somebody much more vulgar than to hell”.